An upriver spring chinook salmon spawning run that has proceeded in fits and starts up the Columbia and Snake rivers is almost certainly late and smaller in number than had been predicted in preseason, according to fishery officials.

The Technical Advisory Committee met Monday to review the return in progress and decided that highly variable fish counts at Bonneville Dam's fish ladders made it difficult to agree on a run-size update.

The group of federal, state and tribal fishery experts decided that a run size of 200,000 was in the middle of the range of projections. TAC's preseason forecast was for an adult upriver spring chinook return to the mouth of the Columbia of 269,300.

"Counts need to stabilize in order to get a more definitive run-size estimate," according to a Wednesday joint staff report by the Oregon and Washington departments of fish and wildlife. During the past week daily counts have bobbed up and down, with a high of 9,686 on May 4 and a low of 2,027 May 2. The May 5 count dropped to slightly over 4000, then to less than 3,000 before rallying to more than 6,000 spring chinook Wednesday.

So far this year 72,429 adult chinook have passed Bonneville on their way to hatcheries and tributary spawning grounds in Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Some 17,879 of the fish had reached McNary Dam, the fourth hydro project they encounter, and 12,329 had reached Ice Harbor Dam, the first dam they reach in the Snake River after clearing those same four lower Columbia projects. The migrating fish include Snake River and Upper Columbia stocks listed under the Endangered Species Act.

TAC decided the run is indeed late timed as compared to the historic average, and Bonneville passage is not yet 50 percent complete. The joint staff report says that passage would be 61 percent complete on May 6 based on the 10-year average run timing but only 41 percent complete based on the recent 3-year average. The past three year's returns have been late timed.

Nearly 100,000 fish have been accounted for, those counted at Bonneville and about 26,000 caught before they reached the dam. Anglers, whose season is now closed, caught 20,000 chinook. Gill-netters caught nearly 6,000. The vast majority of the salmon harvested were upriver fish.

Meanwhile, citing low numbers of spring chinook salmon passing over Willamette Falls and a lower than expected proportion of hatchery fish in angler surveys and ladder counts to date, fish managers at the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife decided Thursday to close the Willamette River below the falls to retention of chinook, effective 12:01 a.m. Monday, May 12.

Fishing for steelhead, shad and other species in this area will remain open, as will chinook retention above Willamette Falls and in the Clackamas River, with previously adopted seasons and bag limits still in effect. These are:

As of May 6, only 1,786 spring chinook have passed over the Willamette Falls in Oregon City, with only 935 being hatchery fish. The Willamette Management Plan objective is 20,000 hatchery fish passing over the dam.

"We're concerned about our ability to meet escapement goals," said Steve Williams ODFW Fish Division deputy director. "We made the decision to close the fishery below the falls now in order to meet our hatchery broodstock needs, and to maintain fishing opportunities above the falls."

On the mainstem, should the upriver run end up at 200,000, non-Indian sport and commercial fisheries will have exceeded their allowable impact on the upriver run by 11 percent, according to the joint staff report.

While non-Indian sport and commercial mainstem fisheries below Bonneville are closed, tribal commercial fisheries in reservoirs above the dam got their start this week. The Monday-Thursday fishery is now ended.

The tribal commercial fishery allows the sale of spring chinook and steelhead as well as incidentally caught fish including walleye, shad and carp. Sales of commercially caught fish opened at Monday morning.

The sale of fish caught by tribal members with hook and line and dip nets from platforms will continue until further notice. Future commercial fisheries hinge on the tribal catch so far and future upriver spring chinook run updates. A meeting of the Columbia River Compact is scheduled this afternoon (Friday) to review the latest run data and harvest toteals.

The tribal fishery is protected under 1855 treaties with the federal government, as are subsistence and ceremonial harvests. The treaties signed by the Yakama Nation, Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Umatilla, and Nez Perce Tribe reserve the right to fish at all usual and accustomed fishing places in the Columbia River Basin.

"The commercial fishery is a fundamental part of the tribal community," said Olney Patt, Jr., CRITFC's executive director. "It allows tribal fishers to support their families, continue their traditions and rebuild their communities by putting resources back into the local, tribal, and regional economies."

CRITFC estimates that for every $10 generated by fish sales, as much as $7 is placed back into local economies.

The tribes warn that, due to high demand and the relatively low availability of salmon on the West Coast, prices may be higher than previous years and the numbers of fish for sale direct to the public may be somewhat limited. Price is determined at the point of sale.

When fish are available, tribal fishers may be found selling fish at a number of locations along the river: Marine Park at Cascade Locks, Lone Pine at The Dalles and the boat launch near Roosevelt, Washington. Commercial sales will not occur on Corps of Engineers property at Bonneville Dam.

Call the tribes' salmon marketing program at (888) 289-1855 or visit the salmon marketing website indiansalmonharvest.com for more information. Sales are cash only.