Fisheries experts expect 366,500 adult fall chinook salmon to return to the Columbia River basin this late summer and fall, which would break a three-year trend of declining runs and represent a near doubling of last year's total.
Annual fall chinook returns increased steadily beginning in 2000, hitting peaks of 893,100 in 2003 and 799,000 in 2004. The run dropped to 561,400 in 2005 and 422,400 in 2006, then last year fell to 211,100, the lowest total dating back to at least 1970.
A Columbia River return of 366,500 fall chinook this year would amount to 74 percent of the recent 10-year average of 494,300 fall chinook salmon to the mouth of the Columbia.
The biggest component of the fall chinook run, the upriver brights, are expected to number 162,500 this year, according to preseason forecasts released Feb. 14 by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and the U.S. vs. Oregon Technical Advisory Team. That would be 70 percent of the 10-year average. TAC is made up of representatives of federal, state and tribal fish management entities.
The 2007 upriver bright return totaled 112,600. Upriver bright fall chinook are fish bound for spawning grounds and hatcheries above Bonneville Dam, which is located about 145 river miles upstream of the Columbia's mouth. The URB runs includes fall chinook from the Mid-Columbia's healthy Hanford Reach stock as well as from the Snake River, where fall chinook are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. It also includes Yakima and Deschutes river stocks.
The forecast for 2008 is buoyed in large part by an above average return of "jacks" last year. Jacks are sexually immature 2- or 3-year-old fish that return a year or more ahead of their broodmates. The jack count at Bonneville between Aug. 1 and Nov. 15 at Bonneville Dams was 51,897, compared to the 10-year average of 37,891.
That's an indication that this year's 3- and 4-year-old return should be strong. The other fall chinook age groups in the 2007 return were not as strong, however.
Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission biologist Stewart Ellis said he expects the 2008 fall chinook run to be "skewed toward younger age fish." Ellis is TAC vice chair.
TAC expects to see significant improvement in the "Bonneville pool hatchery" return. Last year's return was only 14,600, the lowest since only 9,100 returned in 1987, according to the Oregon and Washington fish and wildlife departments' 2007 joint staff report. The return was 27,900 in 2006.
The 2008 preseason forecast, also lifted by a strong 2007 jack return, is for a BHP return of 87,200. The BHP "tules" are primarily fish reared at Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery, though some natural production occurs. Their numbers also jumped upward in the early 2000s with a peak of 180,600 in 2003.
The 2008 Bonneville upriver bright fall chinook forecast is 26,400, which would be similar to last year's return of 24,300 and be about 66 percent of the 10-year average. Likewise expectations for the pool upriver bright are similar to last year's actual return, a 27,600-fish forecast as compared to the 22,600-fish return in 2007. The 2008 forecast would be 67 percent of the 10-year average.
The Bonneville upriver brights are produced at Bonneville Hatchery. The pool upriver brights are reared at Little White Salmon, Irrigon and Klickitat hatcheries and released between Bonneville and McNary dams. Natural PUB production is also believed to occur below John Day Dam in the Wind, White Salmon, Klickitat and Umatilla rivers.
The 2008 Lower River Hatchery fall chinook forecast is 59,000, which would be an increase over last year's 32,700-fish return and 74 percent of the 10-year average.
The lower river wild fall chinook return is expected to number only 3,800 this year, the second lowest return on record since 1964.
Next summer's Columbia River coho run is forecast to be 276,100, about half the 2007 total.