After witnessing relatively high, though steadily declining, spring chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River basin over the past eight years, fishery experts have high hopes and estimates for 2008.

Preseason forecasts completed this week predict an adult "upriver" spring chinook return to the river mouth of the Columbia of 269,500, which would triple this year's tally and, if it materializes, be the third biggest run on record dating to the early 1970s.

The sockeye and upriver and lower river spring chinook return estimates are a first look at 2008's potential by the Technical Advisory Committee, a panel of federal, state and tribal officials created initially to inform the ongoing U.S. v Oregon litigation.

The predicted 2008 upturn is based in large part on this past summer's big return of "jacks," sexually immature 2-year-old fish. There were 16,606 spring chinook jacks -- fish in their third year of life -- counted passing Bonneville Dam last spring compared to 2,908 in 2006 and a 10-year average of 8,234, according to totals posted online by the Fish Passage Center.

"The forecast is really dependent on jacks because we didn't have a lot of 4-year-olds last year," according to TAC Vic Chair Stuart Ellis, a fishery biologist with the Columbia Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. The forecast includes an anticipated 2008 return of 255,500 upriver spring chinook 4-year-olds, broodmates of last year's jacks, but only 13,800 5-year olds. The upriver fish come from Columbia and Snake river tributaries above Bonneville and include Endangered Species Act-listed Upper Columbia and Snake River stocks.

"We're trying to remind people that these forecasts are a preseason planning tool" with the final outcome yet to be determined, Ellis said. The fish runs are monitored during the season, primarily via dam counts and fish catch data, as Oregon and Washington fish and wildlife agencies plan and execute commercial and sport fisheries on the mainstem and tributaries. Idaho officials likewise establish tributaries fisheries based on the actual run size.

The spring chinook, and Spring Creek tule fall chinook, have in the past shown the widest variation in terms of the preseason forecasts matching up with the actual returns, Ellis said.

Along with the good news of a big anticipated upriver return comes some bad news, a Willamette River spring chinook 2008 forecast of only 34,000 adults to the mouth of the Columbia. That compares to a return of 40,468 this year and 59,700 in 2006. The recent five-year average including 2006 was 106,600.

Low Willamette numbers could complicate fisheries management, potentially pushing both sport and commercial mainstem fisheries above Portland's Interstate 5 bridge to avoid impacts on the Willamette spring chinook, which is also ESA listed. The Willamette's confluence with the Columbia is at Portland.

Last spring's relatively meager return of upriver and lower river chinook served to dampen fisheries to come extent. The 2007 upriver spring chinook return to the Columbia was 78,500 adult fish, compared to the preseason forecast of 86,000.

Anglers caught and kept nearly 7,500 spring chinook on the mainstem in 2007, including 6,476 below Bonneville, according to Oregon and Washington summaries. Fish without a clipped fin and presumably of natural origin must be released by fishers.

Last year anglers kept nearly 12,000 spring chinook in the lower river alone and that catch had ranged from 13,000 to 25,000 over the previous five years based on strong returns.

The first half of the decade witnessed a big rise in, particularly, upriver spring returns with 186,141 in 2000 and an all-time record 437,910 in 2001. The numbers gradually decreased after that with 331,303 in 2002, 242,638 in 2003, 221,600 in 2004, 106,935 in 2005 and 132,138 in 2006.

The upriver run forecast for 2008 includes 145,400 Snake River spring/summer chinook, which would be triple the 46,200 count in 2007. That number includes an anticipated 21,100 "wild" Snake River spring/summer fish as compared to the actual return this year of 10,600.

The 2008 forecast for Upper Columbia spring chinook is 23,300 compared to this year's 8,600 adult count. Of those, 2,900 are expected to be wild fish. The wild total this year was 900.

The Yakima River spring chinook return is forecast at 10,100 (3,000) actually returned in 2007) while the Klickitat River expectation is 1,100, identical to this year's return.

The forecast for the Wind River is 10,000 spring chinook compared to 4,300 this year and the Little White Salmon return is expected to number 36,800, a jump from 6,500 this year.

TAC also issued a 2008 sockeye salmon forecast that is nearly triple the 2007 return, 75,600 as compared to 27,300. Most will be heading for the upper Columbia (13,700 to the Wenatchee drainage and 61,200 to the Okanogan) but the beleaguered Snake River sockeye forecast is expected to be up as well.

Last year the preseason forecast was for a return of 300 of the so-called Redfish Lake sockeye to the mouth of the Columbia but only 57 are believed to have made that return to freshwater. And only three made the 900 mile trip up the Columbia, Snake and Salmon rivers to the Sawtooth basin in Idaho.

The Redfish sockeye, listed as endangered, are expected to number 700 to the mouth of the Columbia this year. That increased forecast is based on the fact that the fish had relatively good river conditions and, potentially, survival during their outmigration and began that journey in strong numbers, according Paul Kline of the Idaho Department of Fish and Game.

The Upper Columbia summer chinook forecast is 52,000, which would be an increase of 15,000 fish over the 2007 return.

An Oregon-Washington preliminary analysis anticipates 2008 fall chinook returns should also be "an improvement over 2007," though not to the same degree as for spring chinook. The fall chinook estimates will be presented in more detail after the New Year, according to Cindy LeFleur of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.

The initial look predicts that the upriver bright fall chinook return -- fish bound for the Columbia's Hanford Reach, the Snake River and elsewhere -- should be greater than the 2006 run of about 100,000. That forecast is also based on an above average jack return in 2007. An uptick would break a five-year trend of declining URB returns that started in 2003.

The spring Creek tule return -- Bonneville Pool Hatchery stock -- is also expected to rebound after small runs the past two years. The jack return this year was 40 percent greater than the recent 10-year average. The 2007 return numbered less than 20,000.

The 2008 Mid-Columbia bright fall chinook return is expected to be similar to 2007's count of less than 30,000.

The Lower River Hatchery fall chinook is also expected to be similar to last year's run of less than 35,000.

The Lower River wild fall chinook stock had one of the poorest returns on record in 2007 with a repeat expected in 2008, according to the state estimates.

The states' 2008 coho "outlook" is also down. Columbia River jacks totaled about 13,000 this year, the worst jack return since 1997 and only 43 percent of the 10-year average. "Early" stock jacks numbered 4,800 compared to the 10-year average of 16,400 and "late" jacks number 4,600 so far compared to the 10-year average of 13,400. Late jacks are still being counted.

Oregon coastal jacks are 1,000 compared to the 10-year average of 6,100.

Abundance of hatchery fish returns in years with similar jack returns:

-- 1995 – 146,000

-- 1996 – 188,000

-- 1998 – 212,000

More information about the 2008 spring chinook forecast and other Columbia River fisheries information can be found http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/index.asp