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Climate Center Shifts From ‘Neutral’ To 70 Percent La Nina Weather Pattern; Suggests Cooler, Wetter
Posted on Friday, October 14, 2016 (PST)

The National Climate Prediction Center on Thursday abruptly shifted its El Nino-La Nina forecast from “neutral” to a La Nina weather pattern that has a 70 percent chance of developing this fall and persisting through winter.


A La Nina pattern, resulting from a significant shift to cooler water temperatures across monitoring zones in the Pacific Ocean, has a record of producing cooler and wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest. Skiers view La Nina as being favorable to snowfall during the winter months, even though conditions can vary from one area to the next.


“Overall, the combined ocean and atmospheric system reflects (neutral conditions) during September, but more clearly trending toward La Nina conditions,” states the update from the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.


Based on multiple forecast models and a forecaster consensus, La Nina is “favored” to develop with a 70 percent chance in the Northern Hemisphere fall of 2016, and “slightly favored” to persist with 55 percent chance during winter of 2016.


The last La Nina pattern recorded was in 2013-2014, before it gave way to an El Nino pattern that produced warmer and drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest.


The next climate forecast update is scheduled for Nov. 10, 2016.

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