The National Climate Prediction Center on Thursday abruptly
shifted its El Nino-La Nina forecast from “neutral” to a La Nina weather
pattern that has a 70 percent chance of developing this fall and persisting
A La Nina pattern, resulting from a significant shift to
cooler water temperatures across monitoring zones in the Pacific Ocean, has a
record of producing cooler and wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest. Skiers
view La Nina as being favorable to snowfall during the winter months, even
though conditions can vary from one area to the next.
“Overall, the combined ocean and atmospheric system reflects
(neutral conditions) during September, but more clearly trending toward La Nina
conditions,” states the update from the Climate Prediction Center in College
Based on multiple forecast models and a forecaster
consensus, La Nina is “favored” to develop with a 70 percent chance in the
Northern Hemisphere fall of 2016, and “slightly favored” to persist with 55
percent chance during winter of 2016.
The last La Nina pattern recorded was in 2013-2014, before
it gave way to an El Nino pattern that produced warmer and drier conditions
across the Pacific Northwest.
The next climate forecast update is scheduled for Nov. 10,