Two years ago "El Nino" signals stood out. Last fall it was "La Nina."

And for this year?

La Nada, according to forecasters gathered Thursday to discuss how forecasted climate conditions for the winter of 2008-2009 may affect regional climate and streamflow conditions in the Columbia River Basin and western Washington and Oregon in the summer of 2009.

Climatic conditions that can tilt forecasts toward wet or dry or warm or cool are stuck in neutral, experts say.

"It's a tossup," said Nate Mantua of the University of Washington-based Climate Impacts Group. CIG, funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, each fall hosts workshops highlighting the seasonal climate forecast and water resource outlook for the Pacific Northwest. The meetings also provide forums for sharing the latest research on climate impacts and climate forecasting,

The first this year was held in Vancouver, Wash. A second is scheduled Oct. 16 in Boise. Registration for the Boise workshop is required by Oct. 9. More information about CIG and its products can be found at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

A year ago "it was pretty clear that La Nina would prevail through the winter," Mantua said of cooler than normal tropical ocean temperatures. With El Nino conditions tropical water temperatures are warmer than long-term averages.

Those El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions can affect Northwest weather patterns. El Niño winters, for example, tend to be warmer and drier than average with below normal snowpack and streamflow in the Northwest. La Niña winters tend to be cooler and wetter than average with above normal snowpack and streamflow.

At this time point in time a year ago the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was also transitioning to a negative or cool phase, another signal that a cooler, wetter winter might be in the offing. PDO is a measure of sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and wind patterns. A cool PDO also brings enhanced coastal ocean biological productivity off the west coast of the United States.

A cool PDO generally bodes well for young Columbia Basin salmon entering the Pacific. Struggling salmon stocks from other watersheds should have benefited as well, such as Sacramento River stock that has fallen to unprecedented low levels.

Juvenile salmon were greeted by a strong upwelling of nutrients in April, May and June and cooler than average coastal water temperatures that lasted through August.

"This situation is probably going to turn that around," Mantua said of the boost those ocean conditions should give weakened salmon stocks.

Climate signals have changed since midsummer.

"This year the pattern is pretty mixed," Mantua said. A negative PDO pattern remains "but it's not as strong as it's been for the past year," and "it's drifting toward normal."

"The La Nina event is over," Mantua said of tropical ocean temperatures that have returned to the normal range.

Most of Wednesday's presenters that were willing to offer forecast for next summer's runoff from mountain snowpacks pegged it at normal or slightly below because sapped soil moisture has not fully replenished. All qualified their forecasts.

Andy Wood of 3TIER said he was reluctant to offer forecasts based on the "small signals" from soil moisture data and the available climate data.

His initial forecast pegs natural runoff past the lower Columbia's The Dalles Dam at 95 percent of normal for the January-July period. The forecast for the lower Snake River's Lower Granite Dam is 89 percent and the mid-Columbia's Grand Coulee volume forecast is 97 percent.

The Northwest River Forecast Center's Stephen King showed the results of the Sept. 23 forecast from the RFC's ensemble streamflow prediction forecast -- 100 percent of normal runoff past Grand Coulee and The Dalles.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a cool, wet October for the Northwest. Its longer term outlook says there's an equal chance of above average, average or below average precipitation and greater chance of warmer than average temperatures this winter.

One workshop participant remarked that the early bird forecasts aren't necessarily for a "normal" winter.

"We just don't know that much."

The presentations are posted on the meeting website:

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/workshopfiles/vanc2008/index.htm